Тезисы и цитаты: Касым-Жомарт Токаев

Kazakh voters have approved a new constitution that may provide President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev with a loophole allowing him to stay in power in the Central Asian energy and minerals giant beyond 2029, exit polls from a referendum on Sunday show.

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On 15 March, voters in Kazakhstan approved the most comprehensive overhaul of its constitution since its adoption in 1995 under former president Nursultan Nazarbayev. This radical revamp of 80 per cent of the constitution will lay out the future trajectory for Kazakhstan – and provide a legacy for President Kassym Zhomart Tokayev.

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Two exit polls indicate that around 87% of voters backed the new constitution. Turnout stood at 73%, the electoral commission earlier said.

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Я ознакомился с конституциями многих стран и могу с уверенностью сказать, что наш Основной закон стоит в ряду самых прогрессивных

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The new constitution streamlines the country's parliament and re-creates the office of vice president, which was abolished in 1996. It gives the president the authority to appoint the vice president and a host of other key officials.

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The constitutional changes include a transition to a unicameral parliament, the Kurultai, and the creation of the Halyk Kenesi, a new representative body of citizens.

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The president’s new powers mean he will be able to appoint all candidates for the Supreme Court, as well as members of the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Audit Chamber and the Central Election Commission, subject to Kurultai approval.

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Furthermore, constitutional amendments will now only be approved through a referendum, rather than by parliament, which the president says will prevent ‘certain political groups’ from amending the constitution.

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The constitution's swift drafting had prompted some analysts in Kazakhstan to suggest that Tokayev may be looking to anoint a successor as vice president and leave office early, or to stay in his post with a new constitution resetting his term limits.

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The constitutional changes strengthen the power of the presidency and present several possible scenarios for succession.

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Or he could step down early and assume the position of vice president, with his successor installed as president.

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President Tokayev could use the results of the constitutional referendum as justification for a new seven-year term.

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Both the old and new constitutions limit presidents to one, seven-year term, a limit introduced by Tokayev in 2022.

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After voting in the capital, Astana, Tokayev was asked by a reporter about whether the constitution would facilitate a coming transfer of power. He said the next presidential election would take place in 2029, when his term ends.

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Russia, in particular, views Tokayev as a guarantor against a wave of anti-Russian popular sentiment.

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Both Russia and China would favour continuity in their relations with Kazakhstan, viewing Tokayev as a productive partner.

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The new constitution also proposes making Kazakh the country’s main language, while retaining Russian as another, albeit downgraded, official language.

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China is likely to welcome the transition to a more stable and institutionalized system more akin to its own.

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"Some experts suggest that competition for power in Kazakhstan is reportedly intensifying, and that various trends giving rise to concern are on the rise," Tokayev said. "However, there are absolutely no grounds for worry that this will have a negative impact on society."

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But Russia will be wary that the new constitution cements Kazakhstan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of increasing Russian attempts to assert its influence.

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Opposition to the constitutional rewrite had been marginal, with state-approved pollsters showing large majorities in favor of the new document.

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Human rights groups, meanwhile, have raised concerns over the changes. Although the text emphasizes the importance of human rights and clarifies constitutional mechanisms, they claim that it also gives the government more leverage to crack down on freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association.

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The changes include a ban on foreign financing of political parties and trade unions.

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This will complicate the enforcement of international arbitral awards.

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In a rare public statement, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan's president from 1991 to 2019, said he had voted in favor of the new constitution.

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The current wording could allow domestic law to supersede Kazakhstan’s treaty obligations, such as bilateral investment treaties and the Energy Charter Treaty.

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The new constitution also removes a reference to international law taking precedence over domestic law.

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"Some time ago, I made the choice to entrust [the presidency] to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and I stand by that choice forever. It is my hope that this Constitution will serve the well-being of our Kazakhstan and the welfare of our people."

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the text defines marriage exclusively as a ‘union between a man and a woman’, cementing discrimination against the LGBTIQ+ community who already faces stigma and harassment in Kazakhstan.

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Countries with a more transactional way of doing business – such as the US – could be at an advantage, at least in the short term.

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