Тезисы и цитаты: Касым-Жомарт Токаев

On 15 March, voters in Kazakhstan approved the most comprehensive overhaul of its constitution since its adoption in 1995 under former president Nursultan Nazarbayev. This radical revamp of 80 per cent of the constitution will lay out the future trajectory for Kazakhstan – and provide a legacy for President Kassym Zhomart Tokayev.

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The constitutional changes include a transition to a unicameral parliament, the Kurultai, and the creation of the Halyk Kenesi, a new representative body of citizens.

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Furthermore, constitutional amendments will now only be approved through a referendum, rather than by parliament, which the president says will prevent ‘certain political groups’ from amending the constitution.

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The president’s new powers mean he will be able to appoint all candidates for the Supreme Court, as well as members of the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Audit Chamber and the Central Election Commission, subject to Kurultai approval.

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The constitutional changes strengthen the power of the presidency and present several possible scenarios for succession.

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President Tokayev could use the results of the constitutional referendum as justification for a new seven-year term.

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Or he could step down early and assume the position of vice president, with his successor installed as president.

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Both Russia and China would favour continuity in their relations with Kazakhstan, viewing Tokayev as a productive partner.

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Russia, in particular, views Tokayev as a guarantor against a wave of anti-Russian popular sentiment.

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But Russia will be wary that the new constitution cements Kazakhstan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of increasing Russian attempts to assert its influence.

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China is likely to welcome the transition to a more stable and institutionalized system more akin to its own.

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The new constitution also proposes making Kazakh the country’s main language, while retaining Russian as another, albeit downgraded, official language.

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The changes include a ban on foreign financing of political parties and trade unions.

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Human rights groups, meanwhile, have raised concerns over the changes. Although the text emphasizes the importance of human rights and clarifies constitutional mechanisms, they claim that it also gives the government more leverage to crack down on freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association.

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This will complicate the enforcement of international arbitral awards.

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The new constitution also removes a reference to international law taking precedence over domestic law.

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The current wording could allow domestic law to supersede Kazakhstan’s treaty obligations, such as bilateral investment treaties and the Energy Charter Treaty.

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the text defines marriage exclusively as a ‘union between a man and a woman’, cementing discrimination against the LGBTIQ+ community who already faces stigma and harassment in Kazakhstan.

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As the West races to secure critical minerals in the region, Kazakhstan’s new constitution will pose a challenge for Western countries that still adhere to the values-based order.

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Countries with a more transactional way of doing business – such as the US – could be at an advantage, at least in the short term.

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