Theses and quotes: Касым-Жомарт Токаев

On 15 March, voters in Kazakhstan approved the most comprehensive overhaul of its constitution since its adoption in 1995 under former president Nursultan Nazarbayev. This radical revamp of 80 per cent of the constitution will lay out the future trajectory for Kazakhstan – and provide a legacy for President Kassym Zhomart Tokayev.

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Как подчеркнул в своем выступлении Президент страны Касым-Жомарт Кемелевич Токаев, казахстанцы проголосовали за обновление и модернизацию страны.

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Я ознакомился с конституциями многих стран и могу с уверенностью сказать, что наш Основной закон стоит в ряду самых прогрессивных

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Two exit polls indicate that around 87% of voters backed the new constitution. Turnout stood at 73%, the electoral commission earlier said.

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The new constitution streamlines the country's parliament and re-creates the office of vice president, which was abolished in 1996. It gives the president the authority to appoint the vice president and a host of other key officials.

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The constitutional changes include a transition to a unicameral parliament, the Kurultai, and the creation of the Halyk Kenesi, a new representative body of citizens.

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Furthermore, constitutional amendments will now only be approved through a referendum, rather than by parliament, which the president says will prevent ‘certain political groups’ from amending the constitution.

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The constitution's swift drafting had prompted some analysts in Kazakhstan to suggest that Tokayev may be looking to anoint a successor as vice president and leave office early, or to stay in his post with a new constitution resetting his term limits.

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The president’s new powers mean he will be able to appoint all candidates for the Supreme Court, as well as members of the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Audit Chamber and the Central Election Commission, subject to Kurultai approval.

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President Tokayev could use the results of the constitutional referendum as justification for a new seven-year term.

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The constitutional changes strengthen the power of the presidency and present several possible scenarios for succession.

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Both the old and new constitutions limit presidents to one, seven-year term, a limit introduced by Tokayev in 2022.

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Or he could step down early and assume the position of vice president, with his successor installed as president.

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Both Russia and China would favour continuity in their relations with Kazakhstan, viewing Tokayev as a productive partner.

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After voting in the capital, Astana, Tokayev was asked by a reporter about whether the constitution would facilitate a coming transfer of power. He said the next presidential election would take place in 2029, when his term ends.

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Russia, in particular, views Tokayev as a guarantor against a wave of anti-Russian popular sentiment.

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"Some experts suggest that competition for power in Kazakhstan is reportedly intensifying, and that various trends giving rise to concern are on the rise," Tokayev said. "However, there are absolutely no grounds for worry that this will have a negative impact on society."

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But Russia will be wary that the new constitution cements Kazakhstan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of increasing Russian attempts to assert its influence.

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China is likely to welcome the transition to a more stable and institutionalized system more akin to its own.

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The new constitution also proposes making Kazakh the country’s main language, while retaining Russian as another, albeit downgraded, official language.

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Human rights groups, meanwhile, have raised concerns over the changes. Although the text emphasizes the importance of human rights and clarifies constitutional mechanisms, they claim that it also gives the government more leverage to crack down on freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association.

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The changes include a ban on foreign financing of political parties and trade unions.

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Opposition to the constitutional rewrite had been marginal, with state-approved pollsters showing large majorities in favor of the new document.

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The new constitution also removes a reference to international law taking precedence over domestic law.

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This will complicate the enforcement of international arbitral awards.

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The current wording could allow domestic law to supersede Kazakhstan’s treaty obligations, such as bilateral investment treaties and the Energy Charter Treaty.

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In a rare public statement, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan's president from 1991 to 2019, said he had voted in favor of the new constitution.

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"Some time ago, I made the choice to entrust [the presidency] to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and I stand by that choice forever. It is my hope that this Constitution will serve the well-being of our Kazakhstan and the welfare of our people."

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the text defines marriage exclusively as a ‘union between a man and a woman’, cementing discrimination against the LGBTIQ+ community who already faces stigma and harassment in Kazakhstan.

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As the West races to secure critical minerals in the region, Kazakhstan’s new constitution will pose a challenge for Western countries that still adhere to the values-based order.

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