Theses - Касым-Жомарт Токаев (13) ======================================== 1. «Kassym-Jomart Tokayev may still have four years left as president of Kazakhstan, but discussions about a possible power transfer have already begun in earnest. The trigger was Tokayev’s proposal to abolish Kazakhstan’s upper chamber of parliament (the Senate) and strengthen the lower chamber (the Mazhilis).» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1029 2. «In his annual state-of-the-nation address on September 8, 2025, Tokayev proposed a unicameral parliamentary system that would be put to a referendum in 2027.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1030 3. «He said the aim was to strengthen the legislative branch and move away from a hyper-presidential system.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1031 4. «Nevertheless, Tokayev now argues that the upper chamber is no longer needed. He says that in the years after Kazakhstan’s declaration of independence in 1991—when the Senate was made up of representatives from Kazakh regions—it had helped maintain a balance between different parts of the country and solidify loyalty to the center. However, he asserts that now Kazakhstan is stable, and the interests of different regions are adequately represented in the Mazhilis.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1032 5. «Some officials have characterized increasing the powers of the Mazhilis as a step toward democratization. This is unlikely, though, to be the reason for Tokayev’s proposal. The system Tokayev wants to create is one in which Mazhilis deputies are only elected via party lists. But all of Kazakhstan’s political parties are controlled by the authorities, and an end to single-mandate districts and more independent candidates will only strengthen the executive branch’s hold.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1033 6. «In reality, the Mazhilis will only become more powerful if Tokayev takes up the role of speaker when his presidential term ends. This is exactly how many in Kazakhstan interpreted the unicameral reform proposal.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1034 7. «After all, Tokayev’s own amendments to the constitution stipulate he must step down in 2029 at the end of his seven-year term.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1035 8. «Of course, if Tokayev wants to remain in charge after 2029, he could simply change the constitution and scrap the presidential term limit.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1036 9. «Despite Tokayev’s image as a reformer, he has no intention of carrying out real reforms.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1037 10. «In order to nip this talk in the bud and ensure no credible challengers emerge, Tokayev regularly purges his inner circle. Notably, he fired Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu, one of his closest allies, in September.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1038 11. «All of this reveals Tokayev’s attempts to ensure influential individuals cannot build alternative power centers in the run-up to 2029.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1039 12. «While it’s possible he thinks this will help change Kazakhstan’s political culture into one where institutions are more important than individuals, his methods bear the hallmarks of Kazakh authoritarianism: the proposed changes are opaque and are being imposed from above without any real public discussion.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1040 13. «Democratic renewal, therefore, is a distant prospect. The Kazakh system traditionally revolves around one person, and it remains unlikely to become one in which institutions—rather than personalities and successors—play a decisive role.» – November 4, 2025, Carnegie Politika: What’s Behind Kazakhstan’s Purges and Proposed Parliamentary Reforms? Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/11/kazakhstan-parliamentary-reform https://qaz.vision/tezis/1041